End of recession may be in sight - The Business Journal of Milwaukee:

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percentage points in May to 85, bases on a 1997 benchmark of 100. The relative stabilitg in the UO Index over the past three monthss is consistent with a pattern of economic but falls short of a turn that would conclusively mark the end ofthe recession, said Tim Duy, directodr of the Oregon Economic Forum and a UO adjunct assistanrt professor, in a statement. Oregon labor market data continuwe tobe mixed. Initial jobless claims edged downward but remain at a level that suggests further declines innonfark payrolls. Still, initial claims remain well below the peak of December as the pace of economic deterioratiobn hasslowed markedly.
Employment servicexs payroll — largely temporary help agencieas — fell in May, but, the rate of decline is slowing, Duy said. Nonfarm payrolls (not included in the index) fell by just 100 jobs during May, an abrupt slowing compared to therecent declines. It is difficult to see a substantial improvement in thejobs however, with initial claims remaining at high Duy said. The unemployment rate rose to 12.4 Residential housing permits continuedto decline, fallin g to just 627. The typical seasonal boost in building activitu islargely absent, a testament to persistenft weakness in the housing market.
Builders are findingf it difficult to compete in an environmentf of rising foreclosures and tighter underwriting conditions forhome mortgages, Duy said. The Orego n weight-distance tax reversed gains seen theprevious month. In new orders for nondefense nonaircraft capital goods, adjusted for inflation, rose in May to the highest levelk since December 2008. Despite the low levels, the relativer stability since the beginning of the year is a hopeful sign that the wors t declines in business spending arebehind us, Duy U.S. consumer confidence rose agaibnin May, a further indication that consumer spendingy has stabilized, he added. The Oregon economy likely remaine d in recessionin May.
That said, the pace of deterioration has The six-month annualized change in the indexd improved significantly over the past two months, from -11.8 percen in March to -8 percent in May. Similar improvement signaledf an impending end to the2001 recession, and would be consistentg with the prediction that economic growth wouldd firm in the second half of 2009. Duy said, caution is warranted. The UO Index has not yet turnerd upward, and the six-month change remainds well below rates normally consistenft witheconomic expansions, and more than half of the index componentss remain below six-month ago levels.
Finally, therse is a strong possibility ofa “joblesas recovery” as the economy continues to face structural adjustment issues that limit the pace of