Financial firm executive links economic rebound to housing market - Phoenix Business Journal:

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With housing at its most affordablwe in the last35 years, Greiner said inventorhy levels, currently about nine and a half should subside gradually. The six-mont h mark is ideal in a souned economy. But in Phoenix, where foreclosures and home depreciationx continue to batterthe market, a locao recovery will trail a national rebound, he said. “It will probably be a littlse slower,” Greiner said minutes after concluding his economic forecast atthe Ritz-Carlton in central Preliminary estimates show the median Phoenix-areaz home price at $115,000 in May, comparabled to levels in Octoberd 1998, according to the -Repeat Salesw Index.
Greiner’s assumptions conflict with BBVA quarterly economic report published this week that saidSunbeltr states, including Arizona, are poiserd to recover from the recession fastef than other regions of the Despite market gains through the first threre months of the year, Greiner expects a substantia portion will be lost over the next few as the dollar loses its valude and corporate profits remai n “flat on their backs.” However, he said the country has moved out of the worstt bear market since the Great Depression, and “there’sz room for this market to He said UMB is advising clientx to move money away from the U.S.
dolla r and into younger, emerging countries in Soutj Americaand Asia. Similar to the late 1970sa andearly 80s, the countrt is mired in a structural characterized by a deep, broad and widespreacd malaise that causes global ramifications. In a structural the economy undergoes a fundamental shifgt as it comes outof it. In the early 80s, the economyu became consumption based. In this downturn, the government has take a much bigger role ineconomic activity, and likely will becoms a bigger factor in the Gross Domesticx Product. At the end of 2008, governmen consumption expenditures and gross investmenrt accountedfor 20.2 percent of GDP.
“The government is becominfg a bigger part of the economic Greiner said. More than 100 private banking clientsx and potential customers attendedthe forecast.